Wednesday, March 28, 2007

Ahh, the probabilities

On Friday, PB and I got a call from his aunt. PB’s cousin’s girlfriend’s twin brother’s girlfriend is pregnant. Got that? Basically, a friend of our family’s family. That’s much clearer.

Anyway… they (as in both mom and dad) want to place the baby for adoption. And the twin sister (i.e. the potential biological aunt) wanted to know if we were interested. And, the baby is due in July… wait for it… yes, the same month as S.

Initially, we were too shocked to respond positively. Shocked, like first we have no babies. Now, without even pursuing anything with an agency or facilitator, we could (potentially, theoretically, in the abstract) have two babies. BY JULY.

Then we thought, wait, can we afford this? Umm. Not so much. For instance, can we afford the legal fees for two babies? No, but we can borrow. Can we afford formula and diapers for two babies? Ummm… yes, I think, hopefully? What about two cars and two college educations? No, but they can borrow.

Finally, we decided to go for it. As an exercise at work, I started thinking about the probabilities of the various outcomes. Assuming there is a 50/50 chance that either placement will actually occur, and the placements are two independent events, here are the odds:

· Our chances of getting just one baby are still about 50%.

· There’s a 25% chance we’ll end up with no baby.

· There’s a 25% chance we’ll end up with two babies.

· That means a 75% chance we’ll end up with at least one baby!

We like those odds and honestly, I am secretly excited about the prospect of pseudo-twins (that’s my own personal term, I’m about to copyright it). That’s probably because there’s a 0% chance that I will end up as the SAHP to them, and there is a 1000%* chance that my mom will come stay with us in August as she is off from school at that time.

And lastly, there is a 100% chance that our home is still open with no calls and a 79.45% chance that we have officially been blackballed. Of course I’m making that last one up. The blackballed part, not the no calls part.

* That extra 0 is intentional. My mom is over the moon excited about this prospect.


Robin said...

I'm over the moon for you too!!!!

R. said...

I'm LMAO that you've run the statistical odds on these matters... I wish I could do any form of math or statistics - I'd love to do that with my overthinking issues!

Anonymous said...

Get your sleep now - two at once, wow!!

TeamWinks said...

Holy crap! That's wonderful! I love your odds!

I think I am with you on the blackballed list, and I didn't do a damn thing wrong. OH, unless you count being honest about the ages of placements we will take. Just that minor bit there...ahem...yeah.

Dream Mommy said...

I don't think your blackballed, just haven't found any matches yet.

We were very specific about the child we would accept,and still get calls, and hubby rides social services butt all the time.

I'm excited at the thought of two babies. Maybe that means at least one will work out.

MommyNay said...

I need to email you--Im sorry I havent, I think Im hiding from you because I think with anyone else I can pretend like its all behind me. Faking it till I make it!
This is incredible! Wow two babies!
Having non-twin twins(the term I learned from Tricia) is quiet an experience. Do each of the prospective first mothers know of one another? Hmmmm, rambling much? ok see I told you I should have emailed you! lol